Explanation of U.S.P.P.A. Score Sheet Management

The purpose of this section is to explain exactly what happens with the score sheets and the calculation of averages based on them.

There are several things that happen as the number of sheets accumulated by each player grows over time. Each event is triggered by either the number of sheets reaching a pre-determined threshold, or by the amount of time between certain events, or both.

The process begins with a player joining the system and playing in one or more tournaments. As soon as the membership application is received, with a weighted estimate for a starting average, the player is assigned an identification number. The player's name, ID, expiration date, and address are entered into a database. The estimated average is entered, along with any other sheets for that player, into a file of sheet data that contains all the score sheet data for all players in the system. This estimated average is weighted to prevent a new player's calculated average from jumping around too much before it is stabilized by the accumulation of a sufficient quantity of sheets. Once the number of sheets is large enough, the weighted estimate is removed, and the player's average is calculated solely on the basis of actual score sheets.

Okay, now for the sheet counts where various changes occur. The first change to come along is the loss of the weighted estimate. This occurs when the sheet count reaches twelve. In other words, after twelve sheets a player's calculated average is based on the score sheets only – no more guess-timating.

This is also when we turn on a feature designed to help ensure that the sampling of a player's performance is realistic. The method used is derived from two other worlds: statistics and golf. Statisticians typically eliminate some number of samples that deviate from the average the most. Golf handicaps are calculated using something like the best three of the most recent ten scorecards. Well, we use a combination of these two concepts. We use half of the sheets currently on file for each player. To arrive at the selection of which sheets to use, we first sort them by average, so they are arranged in a list with the best ones first. We then start eliminating the worst sheets until we get within two of half the total sheet count. Then we throw out the best two sheets, leaving us with half the total sheets, mostly the best ones. Obviously this results in a higher average, but the intent is the same as in handicapping golf and bowling: it's harder to sandbag.

As stated in the USPPA rules, until the player's average is established by having 99 or more score sheets, his or her average can be adjusted (in either direction) by the tournament director if he feels the player’s average is way off, because either the estimate was way off, or the player’s number of sheets is still too low to give a realistic average.

This is a good place to point out that being established is really a relative condition. Since it's a fact that the more sheets you have to work with, the more accurate the system is, when a player first gets around 40 sheets, his or her average is beginning to reflect his or her level of play, although at that point the player's average is still subject to some variation as additional sheets are entered into the system. In other words, the more sheets a player has, the less his or her average will vary from week to week.

The next significant sheet count is the maximum number of sheets maintained, which is set at 99. Once this count is reached, for each new sheet entered into the system, an old one drops off. That is, we are always working with the most recent 99 sheets. While more sheets would be arguably better, the more-the-better rule of thumb works only up to a point. First of all, when the number of sheets kept is too high, real changes in a player's game take too long to affect the average calculation. Secondly, the number of sheets in the computer's sheet file would become unmanageable if we didn't limit the number of sheets per player. There are currently over 120,000 sheets on record.

The rest of the events have no effect on the calculation of averages. Rather, they have to do with a player's membership status. When a player's renewal is due within 45 days a dollar sign appears on the average printout as a reminder. If a renewal application and payment are not received before the expiration date shown on the membership card, the player's name is dropped from the printout. A player is not completely removed from the system, in case he or she re-joins.

Here is a summary of the scheme: